Anthropic commits $11.6 billion to Akamai — a deal that could grow to $20 billion
The seven-year deal is Akamai's largest ever, could grow to roughly $20 billion, and inverts the usual pattern in circular AI deals: this time it is the supplier giving the customer a potential equity stake. But the money is a conditional commitment, not guaranteed revenue — and the earnings arrive only in 2027.
What's new
On September 24, 2026, Akamai Technologies (NASDAQ: AKAM) announced a "significantly expanded" relationship with Anthropic worth $11.6 billion in contractual commitment over seven years, according to the company's press release. The agreement can expand by up to a further $9 billion, for a total potential commitment of around $20 billion.
That is more than six times the size of a $1.8 billion arrangement between the two companies that Bloomberg reported in May, as TechCrunch via Yahoo Finance notes. The deal comes on top of more than $2.8 billion in multi-year commitments to Akamai's cloud infrastructure services that the company announced earlier this year.
The warrant structure: the customer gets a stake in the supplier
The most unusual part of the deal is the financing structure. Akamai has issued Anthropic a warrant — a kind of option — to purchase non-voting, convertible Series B preferred stock representing 7.7 million Akamai shares on an as-converted basis, or up to roughly 5 percent of Akamai's outstanding share capital, at an exercise price of $111.33 per share, according to the press release.
About 2 percent vests at signing. The remainder vests as Anthropic's consumption grows, at roughly 1 percent per additional $3 billion in spend — meaning Anthropic only earns the equity by actually spending the money.
This inverts the usual pattern in circular AI deals, TechCrunch points out. In the standard setup, suppliers — chipmakers and cloud providers — invest directly in the AI labs that run their products, as AMD did with OpenAI the year before. Here it is the supplier giving the customer a potential equity stake, one that grows with the customer's spending. According to TechCrunch, it is the first time Akamai has attached a warrant to a cloud deal.
The economics: heavy upfront investment, delayed earnings
The accounting for Akamai is demanding in the short term:
- Capital expenditures: Total capex tied to the commitment is estimated at around $5.5 billion, according to the press release. In addition, 2026 capex rises by roughly $1.7 billion to secure and pre-purchase critical supply chain components, including memory.
- No revenue in 2026: Akamai expects no impact on its 2026 revenue guidance from the deal, the company says.
On Thursday's investor call, executives said they expect $150 to $300 million in revenue in 2027, starting in the second half of the year, with revenue reaching an annual pace of around $1.7 billion by the end of 2028, according to TechCrunch. These figures come from the executives' statements on the call, not from the deal terms in the press release itself.
What the capacity is for
The press release says the multi-year commitment will support Anthropic's "accelerating demand for CPU workloads" through Akamai Cloud's distributed AI infrastructure and software. It is worth noting that Akamai has not specified which concrete workloads are involved, and that the CPU-versus-GPU framing that has dominated coverage is largely analyst and press interpretation. Akamai differs here from the major hyperscalers, which essentially sell GPU capacity to the AI labs.
The market reaction
The stock reacted sharply to the announcement, but the sources disagree on the size. TheStreet via MSN reports the stock rose as much as 16.4 percent in Friday's trading on September 25 before closing near $115, while Blockonomi and others cite a gain of around 3 percent. The exact intraday move thus varies between sources.
Analysts revised their price targets within hours of the announcement, according to Blockonomi: RBC kept its Sector Perform rating with a new target of $135, Piper Sandler raised to $158, BofA to $185, Guggenheim to $225, Evercore ISI set Outperform with a $175 target, and UBS to $148. The spread — from $135 to $225 — reflects differing views on how realistic the delayed revenue ramp is.
The caveats: a commitment, not guaranteed revenue
The deal is not locked in. According to Akamai's securities filing, as TechCrunch summarizes it, the commitment depends on Akamai meeting certain delivery and service-availability requirements, and both companies can terminate the agreement under certain conditions. In other words, the $11.6 billion figure is a contractual commitment conditional on Akamai actually delivering — not guaranteed revenue.
Another caveat: Anthropic itself has made no documented public statement about the deal in the available source material. All quotes and rationale come from Akamai's side of the table.
The open questions
Several questions remain unanswered. Which specific CPU workloads Anthropic will run at Akamai is unspecified. How the heavy capital investment — $5.5 billion tied to the deal plus $1.7 billion in pre-purchases — will be financed is not detailed in the materials. And whether the delayed revenue curve holds will determine whether the warrant structure proves to be a clever incentive or a free equity stake given away. The answers will come in 2027 at the earliest, when the first revenue is expected to land.